See how we test the evidence and assumptions behind carbon forecasts—and trace their impact on expected delivery.
We independently reconstructed a 5,000-ha restoration forecast, testing baseline dynamics, biomass recovery, leakage, uncertainty, and fire exposure to understand expected credit delivery over time.
Near-term delivery was constrained primarily by leakage, despite substantial biological carbon accumulation.
We tested a commercially plausible SOC forecast against regional evidence and evaluated whether the monitoring design could reliably detect the expected carbon response.
The technical question was not simply whether sequestration was plausible, but whether the expected effect was large enough and measurable enough to support credit delivery.
Explore a seasonal climate scenario linked to historical forest productivity across 17 biome groups and 471 carbon-project locations, with interactive climate maps and biome trajectories.
Productivity responses vary by location and can persist after forecast weather returns to normal. These conditional estimates screen exposure; they do not forecast credit delivery.
Identify where the forecast could break.
Quantify how much those risks matter.
Reconstruct what the project is likely to deliver.
We can start with the assumptions behind the forecast and scale the analysis to the decision you need to make.