01
Decompose
What has to be true?Identify the ecological, operational, and accounting assumptions driving projected delivery.
How We Work
Evidence → Assumptions → Risk → Delivery
Every carbon forecast is built on assumptions. We test the evidence behind those assumptions, identify where they create material risk, and translate that risk into expected carbon delivery.
How much carbon is this project likely to deliver, when, and what could cause it to miss?
The Delivery Risk Framework
Follow the forecast back to what drives it.
A repeatable diligence process for moving from the claims behind a carbon forecast to the risks that actually matter for delivery.
02
Test
Does the evidence support it?Evaluate the data and scientific evidence behind the assumptions that matter.
03
Stress
What could change the outcome?Test plausible alternatives and identify which uncertainties materially affect delivery.
04
Model
How do the risks interact?Where needed, independently reconstruct the material components of the forecast and propagate uncertainty.
05
Forecast
What is likely to deliver?Translate the analysis into expected delivery, downside, and the key drivers of underperformance.
Analysis scaled to the decision
Go as deep as the question requires.
Not every decision requires a new carbon model. We focus the analysis on the level of uncertainty and materiality behind the decision.
01
Delivery Screen
Where could the forecast break?
Independent technical review of the evidence and assumptions underlying projected delivery.
Technical review
02
Delivery Stress Test
How much could those risks matter?
Targeted analysis to quantify the assumptions most likely to change expected delivery.
Targeted analysis
03
Independent Delivery Forecast
What do we expect the project to deliver?
Independent reconstruction of expected carbon delivery and uncertainty.
Ex-ante modeling
See the framework in practice
From technical evidence to delivery risk.
See how we apply the Delivery Risk Framework across different project types and levels of analysis.
See case studies →Need an independent view of project delivery?
We help investors, developers, and other carbon-market participants understand what sits behind the forecast—and what could cause it to change.